Alternative paths for large IOCs
by Stephen Rogers, Ondrej Sanislo
December 2015
Low oil prices may drive pervasive structural changes in upstream oil and gas

It is clear that with the postponement of many capital projects the IOCs have an increasing reserves replacement and dividends/free-cash flow challenge. The increasing strength of many National Oil Companies also presents them a growing strategic dilemma to these IOCs. What are potential future winning strategies for the IOCs? What directions are plausible and how can they either pursue growth or maintain earnings? Might some or all of them need to rethink their business models? What types of future partnership or collaboration might be appropriate? This paper aims to identify and evaluate a set of alternative scenarios for the IOCs, describing the strategic responses that IOCs may have to make.